When Sauli Niinisto was elected as Finland’s president 12 years ago, his focus was on developing a European defense policy, exploring opportunities in China, and maintaining a predictable relationship with Russia. However, as Finland prepares for a presidential vote to choose Niinisto’s successor, the country’s priorities have shifted.
Russia has become increasingly unpredictable, and there is still no clear European deterrent in place. Last year, Finland abandoned its decades-long non-alignment to join NATO, with the US replacing Russia at the center of Finnish foreign and defense policy.
Relations with China have also soured following incidents involving a Chinese cargo vessel in the Gulf of Finland. The suspicion of Russian-Chinese collusion has grown, creating additional tension.
Traditionally, Finland’s security has been based on a cautious relationship with Russia, with Finnish presidents cultivating relationships with Russian leaders. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and subsequent events have prompted a significant shift in Finnish defense posture.
Defense spending has increased, reaching 2.3 percent of GDP, and Finland has made significant investments in new military capabilities. This includes the purchase of F-35 fighter-bombers and the controversial acquisition of the David’s Sling air defense system from Israel.
The next president will inherit a role of increased complexity, with important decisions to be made regarding Finland’s relationship with NATO, nuclear weapons, and other strategic defense issues. There are also questions surrounding the country’s role in the EU, as well as its relationship with the US.
Overall, Finland’s next president will face significant challenges and will need to navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape while maintaining the country’s security and strategic interests.