Azerbaijan announced on Wednesday that it has halted its military operations in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh after reaching a ceasefire agreement with Armenian separatist forces. The terms of the agreement signal that the region will return to Azerbaijan’s control.
According to the agreement, separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh must disband and disarm. Talks on the future of the region and its ethnic Armenian population will commence on Thursday. While Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, separatist Armenian authorities have been governing a part of the area, considering it their ancestral homeland.
In response to the uncertainty surrounding the region’s future, thousands of Armenians have gathered at the Stepanakert airport, the capital of Karabakh, seeking refuge with Russian peacekeepers. Azerbaijan plans to integrate the 120,000 ethnic Armenians in the area, ensuring their rights are protected under the constitution. However, some Armenians who have experienced two wars since the fall of the Soviet Union remain skeptical. Neighboring Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attempting to ethnically cleanse the territory, claims that Baku denies.
Ruben Vardanyan, a former top official in Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian administration, expressed concerns, stating, “They are basically saying to us that we need to leave, not stay here, or accept that this is a part of Azerbaijan — this is basically a typical ethnic cleansing operation.” The reported death toll and injuries from the fighting remain unverified by Reuters.
The victory for Turkey-backed Azerbaijan, which had a significant numerical advantage over the separatists, may lead to political turmoil in Armenia. Some political factions in Armenia are critical of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and demand his resignation for not doing enough to protect Karabakh Armenians.
Armenians are also frustrated with Russia, which failed to prevent Azerbaijan’s actions despite having peacekeepers stationed in the region. President Vladimir Putin assured that Russian peacekeepers would protect Karabakh’s civilian population, and the Kremlin rejected criticism regarding its role.
Separatists from the self-proclaimed “Republic of Artsakh” stated that they were forced to accept Azerbaijan’s terms, which were relayed by Russian peacekeepers, after Baku’s army breached their defenses and seized strategic locations without international intervention.
The separatist fighters are expected to leave Karabakh for Armenia and hand over their tanks and artillery under the supervision of Russian peacekeepers. Armenia, despite Azerbaijani claims, asserts that it does not have any military forces in Karabakh and did not intervene militarily.
The number of ethnic Armenians who choose to remain in Karabakh remains uncertain. Russia’s defense ministry broadcast footage of Karabakh Armenians receiving temporary shelter at a makeshift Russian military facility.
Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannissyan commented that in an ideal world, Karabakh Armenians could live under Azerbaijani rule. However, historical experience makes it difficult to imagine.
Azerbaijan’s military operation has faced strong criticism from the United States and some European countries. They argued that the Karabakh conflict should have been resolved through dialogue instead of exacerbating the dire humanitarian situation in the region, which has suffered from a nine-month blockade causing severe shortages of food and other essential supplies.
Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijan’s president, dismissed calls for United Nations Security Council involvement, asserting that any issues need to be resolved on the ground.