As the number of hospitalizations from the “Eris” variant of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus continues to rise in the United States, health experts and analysts have announced that a new Covid vaccine will be available next month. However, there are concerns about its reception due to declining demand for vaccines since 2021.
Despite more than 240 million Americans, or 73% of the population, having received at least one Covid vaccine, the number of people opting for the shots has dropped significantly. In the fall of 2022, when most people had either been infected with the virus or vaccinated, fewer than 50 million people received vaccine shots.
While healthcare providers and pharmacies, like CVS Health, are prepared to offer the updated vaccine in the fight against the Omicron variant next month, they are likely to face challenges of declining concern about the virus, vaccine fatigue, and skepticism about the efficacy of the new vaccine. According to Ashley Kirzinger, Director of Survey Methodology at the Kaiser Family Foundation, public health officials will need to convince the American public that Covid is still a risk and that annual vaccines are necessary.
Previous surveys conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that the main reason vaccinated individuals refused annual shots was their belief that previous shots or infections provided sufficient protection from the virus.
Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers, such as Pfizer and Moderna, have adjusted their expectations for the fall vaccination campaign. Pfizer, the largest maker of mRNA shots with BioNTech, recently warned of job cuts if the campaign falls short. Moderna also acknowledged that demand could be as low as 50 million shots, compared to last year’s figures. Analysts project global vaccine sales of around $20 billion for this year, significantly lower than the over $56 billion generated last year.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee does not anticipate the upcoming autumn campaign to match the numbers of last year. He points out that the concern about Covid is lower this year than it was during the previous winter, when 50 million shots were administered in the US.
The Covid public health emergency officially ended in May, and the government has delegated much of the vaccination responsibility to the private sector. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over 1.1 million people in the US have died from Covid.
CDC Director Mandy Cohen expects the new shots to be released in the third or fourth week of September. Cohen recommends that Americans view the shots as an annual protection measure, similar to the flu shot.
Pfizer/BioNTech SE, Moderna, and Novavax have developed new versions of the Covid vaccine, targeting the XBB.1.5 subvariant, which is similar to the EG.5 sub-lineage of the dominant Omicron variant.
While Covid-19-related hospitalizations have increased by more than 40% since hitting recent lows in June, they remain over 90% below the peak levels observed during the January 2022 Omicron outbreak, according to CDC data.
Some doctors suggest that annual shots should be prioritized for high-risk individuals, such as the elderly, who are more likely to experience severe outcomes if infected with Covid-19. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) may consider making a weaker recommendation for younger, healthier individuals, which could impact demand for the vaccine.
Research conducted by Dr. David Boulware at the University of Minnesota indicates that boosted individuals have less severe symptoms for a shorter duration. He emphasizes the importance of getting boosted to reduce the duration of illness, even if one still falls sick.