President Joe Biden issued a stern warning to Iran following its promise of retaliation against Israel for an air raid on its consulate in Damascus, stating simply, “Don’t.” However, analysts predict that Iran will likely proceed with its own attack, heightening concerns of a regional war and underscoring the limitations of US deterrence efforts in the Middle East.
Tensions between the US and Iran have strained Washington’s foreign policy further, as the US navigates offering unwavering support to Israel while endeavoring to prevent the escalation of conflict in Gaza. Critics like Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute believe that Biden’s approach of supporting Israel unconditionally, rather than rebuking them for their attack on the Iranian embassy, has been counterproductive.
US officials have been reaching out to urge Iran toward restraint while reaffirming their commitment to Israel’s defense, potentially setting the stage for a direct confrontation between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the attack on its diplomatic facility.
Despite longstanding tensions and attacks between the two countries, experts suggest that the bombing of the Iranian consulate represents a significant escalation that Iran cannot ignore. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has stated that Israel must be punished for their actions, raising concerns about further violence in the region.
While the situation remains tense, some see a potential path toward de-escalation through ceasefire efforts in Gaza. Ending the conflict there could have a ripple effect, potentially easing tensions between Iran, Israel, and other regional players. Ultimately, the US faces pressure to navigate domestic politics, international relations, and regional conflict in order to prevent further escalation and promote stability in the Middle East.