Ukraine’s diminishing supply of air defense missiles has allowed Russia to target its energy infrastructure with increasing success, while rationing of artillery shells has enabled Moscow’s forces to steadily advance on the ground. Additionally, Ukraine has not launched any counterattacks on energy or military targets inside Russian territory.
US congressional Republicans, who have stalled aid to Ukraine since December, are now considering a new bill to approve $60bn in aid requested by President Joe Biden’s administration.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is urgently seeking long-range Patriot air defense batteries from European NATO allies, rather than the United States, following unsuccessful diplomatic efforts. Germany has agreed to transfer one battery and is exploring the possibility of transferring a short-range IRIS-T missile battery.
Despite efforts to defend against Russian attacks, Ukraine’s interception rate of missiles has decreased, making it difficult to prevent significant destruction. President Zelenskyy has acknowledged the challenges in countering threats, particularly from Russian air attacks on energy facilities.
On the ground, Russian forces have been gradually advancing since capturing Avdiivka in February. They are now focusing on capturing Chasiv Yar, with plans to expand their attacks on nearby towns. Ukrainian forces have been able to push back Russian formations, but at a high cost.
Ukraine also faces the challenge of glide bombs, which are highly devastating munitions with significant payloads. The country is utilizing domestically produced drones to compensate for ammunition shortages, but remains vulnerable to potential new assaults on Sumy and Kharkiv.
As NATO’s reputation falters, Russia appears to be strengthening its military network through strategic partnerships with countries like North Korea, Iran, and China. These partnerships could pose a significant challenge to the existing global order in terms of defense capabilities.