The Ministry of Finance in Islamabad has projected a gradual decline in inflation starting this month, attributed to improvements in supply, reduction in imported inflation and a high-base effect. In December 2023, inflation is expected to range from 27.5-28.5%, but is forecasted to decrease to 24-25% in January 2024. The ministry’s Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for December also predicts a moderate inflation outlook for the rest of the fiscal year FY24 due to various factors such as stable exchange rates, contained aggregate demand, and lower international commodity prices. Additionally, the recent drop in petrol and diesel prices is expected to counteract inflationary pressures caused by increased petrol prices, leading to lower transportation and manufacturing expenses for the average person. Efforts by sub-national governments to reduce public transport and freight tariffs in response to lower fuel costs are also expected to alleviate inflation. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s price index for November 2023 was stable compared to October, with price changes in various food commodities balancing each other out. Overall, the index was 10.7% lower than the previous year.