On Sunday, Venezuela’s opposition parties held their first primary in 11 years to select a candidate for the 2024 presidential election against President Nicolas Maduro. The primary was held without state assistance as the National Electoral Council took months to respond to a request for logistical help. Venezuelans voted using paper ballots instead of electronic machines at various voting centers. A recent poll indicated that more than half of potential participants did not know where to vote. The primary holds significance as it could be an opportunity for the opposition to gather support from voters in the midst of Venezuela’s ongoing economic crisis.
In a recent agreement, the government and a faction of the opposition agreed to work together to establish basic conditions for the next presidential election. The agreement allows each side to choose its candidate according to its internal rules. However, the government has been using bans on candidates found guilty of corruption to unlawfully prevent opposition members from participating. As a result, two of the 13 initially registered candidates for the primary have dropped out due to being barred from holding public office.
Maria Corina Machado, an opposition member of the Venezuelan National Assembly, has remained in the race despite being barred from holding public office for 15 years. Currently leading the polls with 93 percent of the vote based on early results, Machado claims victory and believes she has a mandate to challenge President Maduro. The final results are still pending, and the counting process has been delayed.
The relationship between Venezuela and the US has influenced this primary. The US recently eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in response to the agreement between the government and opposition parties. The US has urged Maduro’s government to lift the ban on opposition candidates in the 2024 election, but Maduro has refused to do so.
If Machado wins the primary, it is uncertain what would happen since she is a barred candidate. However, she has expressed her intention to pressure the electoral council to let her register for the general election. The US Department of State has hinted at reversing sanctions relief unless Maduro lifts the bans on opposition candidates.
If Machado is unable to register, another opposition candidate may take her place. The opposition has the opportunity to challenge Maduro with the support of the United States and the international community. However, a fractured opposition with lower turnout could favor Maduro in the general election.
The exact date of the presidential election is yet to be specified, but it is expected to take place in the latter half of 2024.