A report by the New York Times states that American and Saudi officials are in discussions to establish a mutual defence treaty similar to those the US has with Japan and South Korea. The purpose of this treaty would be to encourage Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel. Under the proposed agreement, both parties would commit to providing military support if either country faces an attack, whether in the region or on Saudi territory.
In addition to the defence treaty, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly requesting assistance from the Biden administration in developing a civilian nuclear program. However, some US officials express concerns that this program could potentially serve as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons as a counter to Iran.
Although the potential treaty aligns with President Biden’s goal of fostering normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it may raise questions about the increased military involvement of the United States in the Middle East. This contradicts the administration’s planned shift of military resources and focus towards China. Congress is likely to voice objections to a treaty with Saudi Arabia, as some lawmakers, including prominent Democrats, view the Saudi government as an unreliable partner that disregards US interests and human rights issues.
The discussions between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will be a key topic during President Biden’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly. During Biden’s UNGA speech, he emphasised the benefits of countries normalising relations with Israel.
While the US has military bases and troops stationed in Japan and South Korea, there are currently no serious deliberations about having a significant presence in Saudi Arabia under the proposed defence agreement. The existing defence treaties with Japan and South Korea were established following devastating mid-20th century wars and during the height of the Cold War, as part of America’s strategy to counter the global Soviet presence.
The Pentagon currently has approximately 2,700 American troops deployed in Saudi Arabia, as indicated in a letter from the White House to Congress in June. This push for a Saudi-Israel deal by President Biden is a significant shift, as he pledged during his presidential campaign to isolate Saudi Arabia.
A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel would serve as a crucial symbol in defusing tensions between Arab nations and Israel and could have geopolitical ramifications for the United States, particularly in reducing Chinese influence in the Middle East. However, officials have acknowledged that reaching an agreement remains a complex task with no guarantees of success.
The State Department declined to comment on the specifics of the ongoing discussions, according to the New York Times. White House officials have been briefing Democratic lawmakers, who hold significant influence and whose support is needed to approve the treaty.
Several Senate Democrats have consistently voted in favour of restricting arms sales and security cooperation with Riyadh due to concerns about Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign in Yemen and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The Saudi-led war in Yemen has resulted in civilian casualties and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
The Biden administration is also facing pressure from Democratic lawmakers regarding reports of Saudi border forces allegedly killing African migrants attempting to cross from Yemen. Human Rights Watch released a report in August detailing the atrocities, while Saudi Arabia maintains the reports are unfounded.
Former National Security Council director under President George W. Bush, Michael Green, described the treaties with Japan and South Korea as “ironclad” in terms of US military commitment during hostilities. However, given the constant tensions in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen conflict, obtaining approval for a similar treaty for Saudi Arabia may require overcoming a higher political barrier, Green noted.