According to recent data, Russia has emerged as the leading exporter of grains worldwide, outpacing major grain-producing nations such as Canada, Australia, and the United States. This dominance in the market stems from the historical role of wheat as a staple food source for a significant portion of the global population.
Wheat cultivation dates back thousands of years to Mesopotamia and has since become an indispensable part of human diets. However, not every country possesses the capability to cultivate sufficient amounts of wheat to meet their population’s needs.
The production of wheat is influenced by various factors, including natural disasters and human-made conflicts. As a result, fluctuations in production levels can disrupt global food security and lead to conflicts centered around wheat trade.
The International Grain Council (IGC), an organization comprising major wheat-producing and importing nations, projects global wheat production to reach 784 million tonnes in the 2023-2024 season, a slight decrease of 2.4 percent from the previous season.
Currently, only a dozen countries produce enough wheat to meet both domestic demands and export surpluses. China is the largest producer, with 138 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 season. However, China still relies on imports of over 10 million tonnes annually to sustain its massive population and maintain significant reserves.
India, another major wheat producer, has recently imposed export restrictions due to drought-induced production declines. On the other hand, Russia, the United States, Australia, and France are among the world’s top wheat producers.
Leading the pack, Russia is set to achieve its second-best harvest ever, estimated at approximately 90 million tonnes after recording a record harvest of 92 to 100 million tonnes in the previous season. In 2022-2023, Russia was the top exporter, shipping 46 million tonnes according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This year, it is projected to account for a quarter of global wheat trade.
Following Russia, the major exporters are Canada, Australia, and the United States, with the latter experiencing its lowest export levels in the past 50 years, falling below 20 million tonnes. France and Ukraine, formerly the third-largest exporter, are also significant contributors to global wheat trade.
Turkey has been the largest buyer of Russian wheat since 2018, closely followed by Egypt. These two countries alone account for 40 percent of Russian wheat exports. However, Russian wheat is increasingly finding buyers in Western Europe, Northern Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
In recent years, Russia has been making inroads into Africa, particularly in the agricultural sector. Russia’s trade with Africa reached $14 billion in 2020, with agricultural products, including wheat, gaining prominence alongside energy and weapons. While wheat may not be a staple food in most African countries, it serves as a vital source of calories, especially in urban areas. This makes any bread shortages a potential trigger for social unrest.
Although Russian wheat imports into Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to 3.9 million tonnes in 2022-2023, representing about 20 percent of the total wheat imports, this was a decrease from 4.5 million tonnes in the previous season. While Russia has pledged to increase low-cost exports to Africa, the decline in Ukrainian exports has not been fully compensated.
As the global leader in grain exports, Russia’s influence in the wheat market continues to extend and diversify, with more customers, including those in Western Europe and Africa, recognizing the quality and affordability of Russian wheat.