A recent prediction by a Dutch research organization about a potentially powerful earthquake in Pakistan has grabbed attention on social media platforms, and even authorities are taking it seriously. Despite the scientific community’s stance that earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted, reports from Iranian media suggest that the prediction is being considered seriously by neighboring countries as well.
The Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGS) in the Netherlands has made a prediction of a powerful earthquake occurring along the Chaman fault line in Balochistan. They use a methodology that involves monitoring fluctuations in atmospheric electric charge near sea level, which are closely related to the rotation of the Earth’s axis. This allows them to identify regions where significant earthquake activity may occur within a one to nine-day timeframe.
The claims made by SSGS spread widely after being supported by Frank Hoogerbeets, a researcher and seismologist at SSGS, who has previously made accurate predictions. Mr. Hoogerbeets predicted a major earthquake of magnitude six or higher on the Richter scale in Pakistan within the next 48 hours, particularly along the Chaman fault line. However, it should be noted that more than three days have passed since the prediction was made on September 29.
Despite Mr. Hoogerbeets’ previous success with earthquake predictions, the claims made by the Dutch institute have been refuted by scientists, seismologists, and geologists. Even experts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) stated that predicting earthquakes is not possible with current scientific knowledge, as earthquakes are caused by movements of tectonic plates deep underground.
Authorities from the PMD emphasized that the SSGS methodology is not recognized by global scientific bodies, and it is not yet possible to accurately forecast earthquakes. The US Geological Survey also confirms that earthquake prediction requires determining specific elements such as the date and time, location, and magnitude of the event.
However, Professor Din Muhammad, former dean of the Faculty of Environmental Sciences at the University of Balochistan, acknowledged reports of vibrations along the Chaman fault line due to underground activities. He clarified that while there is evidence of energy build-up and plate movement along the fault line, the timing of earthquakes originating from this fault line remains uncertain.
Despite the doubts cast by scientists and experts, local authorities in Pakistan are taking the prediction seriously. The deputy commissioner of Pishin has scheduled an emergency meeting on Tuesday with all concerned departments, including the Disaster Management Authority of Balochistan, to prepare for any potential earthquake.
It is important to note that while the prediction has sparked concern and debate, it is currently believed that accurately predicting earthquakes remains beyond the capabilities of current scientific knowledge.