Following Bangladesh’s recent election, the ruling Awami League was declared the overwhelming winner, prompting Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to welcome a stream of foreign diplomats who congratulated her. While diplomats from India, the Philippines, Singapore, Russia, China, and other nations expressed their well-wishes, the U.S. and the U.K. criticized the election as illegitimate. In response, Bangladesh’s foreign minister dismissed the criticism, claiming they were not bothered by the comments from the West.
This differing response to the election results sheds light on the potential foreign policy implications of Hasina’s return to power. Political analysts and economists believe that the increased ties with China and Russia, in addition to their rejection of concerns from the U.S. and the U.K., could strain Bangladesh’s relations with Western nations but bring them closer to Beijing and Moscow.
The potential visa restrictions and targeted sanctions by the U.S. could hamper its efforts to involve Bangladesh in its strategy to balance the rise of China. Meanwhile, Russia’s support for Bangladesh in areas like nuclear power and the supply of essential commodities might lead to closer ties if the West resorts to coercion against Dhaka.
This geopolitical dilemma presents challenges for the West, as it will be difficult to continue business as usual with Bangladesh. However, it remains to be seen how far the West will go in addressing the situation. On the other hand, Bangladesh also faces tough choices, as any impact on its garment industry due to Western measures could lead the country closer to China.
The re-elected government’s handling of post-election politics will also influence the pressure on the U.S. and its allies to take action against Bangladesh. The imprisonment and lawsuits against members of the main opposition party have already drawn criticism, with some referring to Bangladesh as a de facto one-party state. The opposition expects the government to intensify its crackdown on them, further fueling concerns about the political climate in the country.